The drone attacks on a key Saudi oil pipeline west of Riyadh on Tuesday by Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels bring into sharp focus the increasing role of armed drones during conflicts in the region and even its potential to decide the outcome of future wars.
The drone attacks now pose grave threats to the security of the region, with global consequences. They are also a powerful reminder that Iran, either directly or using proxies like Houthi rebels, is capable of carrying out precision strikes against its targets in the region, which can lead to the widening of a conflict.
The Aramco East-West pipeline, stretching across the country to the port and oil terminal at Yanbu, was damaged in two places as pumping stations were hit by armed drones. The attacks sent shockwaves across the world because of the ability of the rebels to precisely target the pipelines. Within hours of the attack, oil prices soared with the benchmark Brent crude trading at $71 a barrel Tuesday, up $1.27 on the day. This shows that any attacks on Saudi oil facilities will have grave consequences for the world’s energy supply and the global economy.
The attacks also sparked concerns about safety among the public, with several people taking to the social media to express their worries. The Gulf region has several strategic assets like oil wells, pipelines, power and desalination plants, chemical plants and industrial areas etc. Can governments provide adequate protection to these key facilities, asked many in posts on the social media.
This is not the first time the Houthis have used drones in operations against the Saudi-UAE coalition. In July last year, a drone exploded at Abu Dhabi airport, though causing only minor damage but sending a strong message to the UAE that its economic interests were, indeed, vulnerable.
Tuesday’s attacks have also proved another key point: the significant leap in the capabilities of the Houthis and the increased sophistication of the drones to penetrate deep inside enemy territory. The drone flew more than 800 km into Saudi Arabia to successfully attack its target and it was guided using satellite technology, as beyond a certain range, drones need a satellite data link for information to be sent back to the pilot.
The latest attacks are just a continuation of the upgradation of the drone technology. Recently, an Iranian drone reportedly approached a US aircraft carrier group in the Gulf to film the ships, and the images were shared by Tehran’s semi-official news agency. Reports said the footage was recorded from such a short distance that the numbers on the wings of E-2C reconnaissance planes and F-18 fighter jets on deck were clearly visible.
In March, the Houthis released video footage of a drone flying past Saudi’s Al Shuqaiq water treatment and power plant, 130 km from the Yemeni border. With Gulf countries heavily relying on desalination plants, the message was crystal clear.
“America isn’t the only country that deploys drones to spy on its enemies. In the skies over Syria’s bloody civil war, above Iraq’s jihadist insurgency and across a number of regional conflicts, Iran’s drones are becoming an increasingly common sight,” writes www.warisboring.com. There is credible evidence to suggest that Iran is capable of producing the engines used by the majority of their Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), the website quoted Galen Wright, an analyst of Iranian military capabilities at The Arkenstone, as saying.
Quoting research group Conflict Armament Research, the TIME magazine website reported on Tuesday that drones had been flown into the radar arrays of Saudi Arabia’s Patriot missile batteries, disabling them and allowing the Houthis to fire ballistic missiles into the kingdom unchallenged.
“… drones remain difficult to shoot down with either light or heavy weapons. Iraqi forces learned this from driving out the Islamic State group from northern Iraq, where the extremists would load drones with grenades or simple explosives to target their forces,” TIME said in the report.
Al Jazeera said that a slow, unstealthy aircraft was able to fly for several hours deep into Saudi Arabia, and was not detected and intercepted in a time of war. This will ring alarm bells, the website quoted a retired Jordanian air force general Mamour Al Nowar, as saying. “Their air defence system completely failed to handle such attacks” and the Houthis now have the ability “to reach Riyadh and Abu Dhabi”, potentially paralysing the country “if they hit desalination water pumping stations or the almost built nuclear plant in Abu Dhabi”, Al Nowar said.
Interestingly, the latest developments are also expected to give a boost to the military drone market. According to the MarketWatch report, the global military drone market is estimated to surpass the fleet of 18,000 units with a revenue of over $ 13 billion by 2024. The increasing demand of the UAVs for combat and surveillance operations is the primary factor driving the market growth. The Asia Pacific region is estimated to grow fastest in the military drone market with an annual growth rate of 17.6 percent.