NEW DELHI: Like it or lump it, exit polls conducted immediately after the massive 39-day, seven-phase general elections concluded in India on May 19 have predicted a landslide victory for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies.
But unfazed by the saffron surge forecast by most of the exit polls, top opposition leaders have dismissed the projections as ‘erroneous’ and are meeting in New Delhi on Tuesday to discuss plans to stake claim for formation of the next government in the event of a hung verdict after the official results are declared on May 23.
A majority of the agencies which released the results of their surveys on Sunday saw the BJP-led ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) walking away with more than 300 of the 542 Lok Sabha seats up for grabs, and leaving the main opposition party, the Congress, bruised and battered with some 120 seats and other regional outfits with about 90 seats.
However, critics of the Modi regime pointed out at the various agencies’ vast difference in the NDA’s tally —from 242 to 365 — and added that the exit polls were also divided on their predictions about the BJP gains in the most crucial state of Uttar Pradesh (33 to 65) and West Bengal (11 to 23).
Opposition leaders were also emboldened by the statements of BJP’s own leaders making light of the exit polls that gave controversial Modi a second term. While Federal Minister Nitin Gadkari said that exit polls were not the final decision but were only indications, Venkaiah Naidu, Vice President and former minister in the Modi cabinet, opined that exit polls were not exact polls and most of them had gone wrong since 1999.
No wonder, at Tuesday’s meeting of opposition leaders, letters of support will be procured from different parties and the same will be presented to the President to stake claim for government formation if the results reveal a hung Parliament. The anti-BJP parties will also meet the Chief Election Commissioner and present their case about faulty electronic voting machines (EVMs) and suggest ways to count votes on May 23.
Reacting on exit polls, West Bengal chief minister and Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee tweeted that she did not trust exit polls and that people were being manipulated. She added that the game plan was to manipulate or replace thousands of EVMs through this gossip.
N Chandrababu Naidu, Andhra Pradesh chief minister, felt that exit polls had always failed to catch the pulse of the people. “Exit polls have proved to be incorrect and far from ground reality in many instances,” he told reporters in New Delhi on Monday.
Said Congress parliamentarian Shashi Tharoor: “I believe the exit polls are all wrong. In India, many people don’t tell pollsters the truth fearing they might be from the Government.”
While Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan said that one should not speculate on the results of the exit polls, Karnataka Chief Minister HD Kumaraswamy questioned the reliability of EVMs after the exit poll results came in.
Indeed, there have been several instances in the past when exit polls were wide of the mark. In 2004, every exit poll predicted that the NDA would secure over 240 to 250 seats. But when the actual results came, the BJP just managed to get 187 seats.
Again, during the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, though most exit polls had predicted a victory for NDA. They predicted BJP’s win would be just short of the majority mark of 272. However, when the actual result came, the NDA scored a major victory with tally well above 300 and BJP alone crossing the majority mark.
Exit polls have also been proved wrong during the 2017 UP Assembly Elections and the 2015 Bihar state polls as also the 2015 Delhi Assembly Elections.